23-24

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Jan 30, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>We have two concerns in the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky. Wet snow avalanches as the day warms and dry slab avalanches breaking on persistent weak layers.</p>

<p>Thin crusts at the snow surface will disappear quickly this morning, and the wet snow danger will increase. Yesterday, the Bridger Bowl Snow Safety team reported their first natural avalanche at 11 a.m. Climbers in Hyalite Canyon reported icefall, wet slides coming out of the gullies, and small wet avalanches in steep rocky terrain (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30371"><strong><span>observation</span…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30354"><strong><span>observation</span…;). These will increase in volume and likelihood today. Destructive wet slab avalanches are possible. Be clear of slopes and runout zones before the snow becomes unsupportable and slushy.<span>&nbsp; </span></p>

<p>The danger from dry slab avalanches failing on persistent weak layers continues. Two days ago, a group on Bridger Peak knocked a small chunk of cornice onto the slope, triggering an avalanche that propagated out and ran far downslope (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30347"><strong><span>video and details</span></strong></a>). Careful snowpack assessment and route-finding are essential for safer travel in and around avalanche terrain.</p>

<p>The danger is CONSIDERABLE for dry snow avalanches in the Northern Madison and Northern Gallatin Ranges, where triggering an avalanche is likely, and MODERATE for dry snow avalanches in the Bridger Range, where human-triggered avalanches are possible. As the day warms, the danger will rise to HIGH for wet snow avalanches.</p>

<p>Yesterday in Cooke City, a snowmobiler triggered an avalanche, was caught, pulled his airbag, and was buried with his head out of the snow under his sled (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30383"><strong><span>photo and details</span></strong></a>). The avalanche forecast repeating, “danger, danger, danger,” can begin to lose its impact, but the fact remains dangerous avalanche conditions exist near West Yellowstone, Island Park, and Cooke City due to the weakest snowpack in recent memory and now, above-freezing temperatures (<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C2hpwAOrGPW/"><strong><span>read Chabot’s message</span></strong></a>).</p>

<p>The danger of wet snow avalanches will increase throughout the day. Avoid steep slopes when crusts break down and the surface snow gets wet. Human-triggered and natural avalanches will become likely. A moist snow surface and cinnamon roll-like pinwheels rolling downhill are your first indicators to get clear of sun-exposed slopes.</p>

<p>Persistent weak layers buried 1-3 feet deep are resulting in daily avalanche activity (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity"><strong><span>log</span…;). The mountains around Cooke City continue to produce slides and signs of instability (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30366"><strong><span>Doug’s Cooke City Observations and video</span></strong></a><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30376"><strong><span>Woody Ridge Natural</span></strong></a><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30377"><strong><span>Republic Creek recent activity</span></strong></a>). Similar conditions exist in Island Park, where I rode in a cloud and had trouble spotting many slides yesterday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30373"><strong><span>observations and video</span></strong></a>). At Lionhead, a snowmobiler cannonballed onto a small test slope and triggered a miniature avalanche, telling us that larger ones remain likely (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30350"><strong><span>video and details</span></strong></a>). Backcountry travelers continue to report collapsing and unstable test results (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30343"><strong><span>observation 1</span></strong></a><strong> </strong>and<strong> </strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/30344"><strong><span>2</span></strong>…;). Accurate identification of avalanche terrain (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d5_vlY-bjg"><strong><span>video</span>…;, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPwEQLEclEA"><strong><span>video</span>…;), conservative route selection, minimizing exposure to steep slopes, and safe travel protocols are critical.</p>

<p>The danger of wet and dry snow avalanches is CONSIDERABLE.</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar.

Every weekend in Cooke City: Friday at The Antlers at 7 p.m., Free Avalanche Awareness and Current Conditions talk, and Saturday from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Round Lake Warming Hut, Free Rescue Practice.

Partially buried, uninjured snowmobiler in Cooke

Round Lake
Cooke City
Code
SS-AMu-R2-D2-O
Elevation
9500
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.07450
Longitude
-109.90700
Notes

A rider from MN triggered an avalanche immediately north of Round Lake. He was caught, pulled his airbag and was buried with his head out, under his sled. He attributes this to his airbag. His partners dug him out and he was uninjured.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
1
Number buried
1
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
70.0 centimeters
Vertical Fall
75ft
Slab Width
100.00ft
Weak Layer Grain type
Surface Hoar
Weak Layer grain size
10.00mm
Weak Layer Hardness
F
Slab Layer Grain Type
Wind Broken precipitation particles
Slab Layer Grain Size
1.00mm
Slab Layer Hardness
P
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

A rider from MN triggered an avalanche immediately north of Round Lake. He was caught, pulled his airbag and was buried with his head out, under his sled. He attributes this to his airbag. His partners dug him out and he was uninjured. Photo: Anon

Cooke City, 2024-01-30

Natural Avalanches in Republic Creek

Republic Creek
Cooke City
Code
D2
Aspect Range
N-NW
Latitude
44.98550
Longitude
-109.94100
Notes

From obs on 01/29/2024: "Observed quite a few avalanches at the head of Republic Valley today. D1-D2. Range. Looked to be 2-3 days old on various aspects. primarily North-Northwest facing. Attached a few photos. Did not get a good shot of The headwall off Republic peak but that had also slid"

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
D size
2
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Republic Creek Avalanches

Date
Activity
Skiing

Observed quite a few avalanches at the head of Republic Valley today. D1-D2. Range. Looked to be 2-3 days old on various aspects. primarily North-Northwest facing.

attached a few photos. Did not get a good shot of The headwall off Republic peak but that had also slid

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
Republic Creek
Observer Name
Gloria Roe