24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Jan 19, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>A person can trigger avalanches 2-4 feet deep, or deeper on some wind-loaded slopes, which break on persistent weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack. You are more likely to trigger these big </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>persistent slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>on slopes with snow depths less than 3-4 ft deep. On big slopes where snow depth varies you can trigger one of these slides from a thinner area and it can break wide into a deeper part of the slope. Choose slopes that are non-wind-loaded and with a relatively deep and more uniform snow depth, or stay on slopes less than 30 degrees to keep it simple. Recent avalanches show some of the types of terrain to avoid to minimize triggering a persistent slab avalanche (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33584"><span><span><span><strong><span… Mountain</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33544"><span><span><span><strong><span… Ridge 1</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33528"><span><span><span><strong><span… Ridge 2</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Additionally, </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>can be triggered where the recent snow has been drifted into soft slabs up to 1-2 feet thick. Assess the snowpack for unstable drifts, assess the terrain for consequences like cliffs, trees and gullies, and remember even a small slide can easily knock you down. Human-triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is MODERATE near Cooke City, West Yellowstone and in the southern Madison and Gallatin Ranges.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Near Bozeman, Big Sky and Island Park </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> can be triggered where recent snow has been drifted into slabs up to a couple feet thick. Watch for drifting snow off ridgelines (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/saddle-peak-wind-transport"><span…;) and cracking across the snow surface (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/shooting-crack-jefferson-17-jan-2…;) as signs that fresh wind slabs exist. Older drifts of snow that formed over the last week will be more stubborn, but worth watching out for. Note that strong winds last week formed some drifts in less typical locations like lower elevations.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Avalanches breaking on persistent weak layers are unlikely in these parts of our forecast area. However, buried weak layers do exist, so it is worth choosing slopes with a deeper, more uniform snow depth. See our recent observations from </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33746"><span><span><span><span><span><… Park</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> and </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33742"><span><span><span><span><span><…. Ellis</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, and </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63ynwwMOJ4U"><span><span><span><span><s…’s video</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> for more info on this unlikely persistent slab problem.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In the mountains around Bozeman, Big Sky, and Island Park the avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes and LOW on other slopes. Assess the snowpack for buried weak layers and unstable drifts before committing to steep slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE

Do you like to hike? Do you like to ski/ride? Then the King & Queen of the Ridge on 2/1 is for you. Hike, ride and raise money for the Friends of the Avalanche Center at Bridger Bowl this year! Join this fun event to promote and support avalanche safety and awareness! Fundraising prizes for the top 5 individuals who raise over $500.

Divide obs

Date
Activity
Skiing

Dug a pit on divide peak on a southwest facing aspect that was about 210cm deep. ECTX, PSTX on sun crust 15cm down from surface that the new snow had fallen on. Entire snowpack 4F-1F from the thin sun crust to the buried facet layer than began around 165cm deep. Saw evidence of some wind slabs beginning to form near the ridge line. It was cold. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Divide Peak
Observer Name
C Daniels

Pit practice

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

messing around in the cold. Assuming crust is from recent warming.

Region
Northern Gallatin

Deer Creek

Date
Activity
Skiing

Skied a few laps above Deer Creek today, E through SE aspects between 7000' and 8250'

Only about an inch of new snow in past 24 hours

Calm to light winds from E; blowing and drifting snow filling the skin track on isolated, wind-exposed terrain features above 7400'

No recent avalanches, whumphing, or shooting cracks observed

Average ski penetration 15-20 cm above 7000'

Dug a test pit on an E aspect at 8200'; HS 110 cm

ECTN 28 down 25 cm from top

Pit showed poor snowpack structure (30 cm of F-hard, 2mm facets at base) with 1F-hard slab sitting above. We were unable to affect the facet layer with our ECT and we were too cold to do a PST! A little extra force after the ECT did get a sudden collapse at the ground. 

 

Region
Northern Madison
Location (from list)
Deer Creek
Observer Name
Alexis Alloway

Mt. Ellis

Date
Activity
Skiing

Another day of nice skiing on Mt. Ellis.  Dug a quick pit to the ground at the top of the burn, east aspect.  100 cm total snow depth, top 20 cms was was light snow with increasing in density with depth.  At 20 cms there was a bump in density and no real "crust" layer.  We skied some steeper slopes and saw no signs of instability.

...Additonal information for my mt ellis post, 1/17/2025.  My description of the pit snow profile left out the bottom 15-20 cms which was the ever present sw montana faceted snow.  It did show signs of healing.

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Mt Ellis
Observer Name
Dave Combs

Town Hill snowpit (1/11)

Date
Activity
Skiing
Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
Town Hill
Observer Name
Alex Marienthal

Hyalite - Elephant Mountain Update

Date
Activity
Skiing

Toured up Elephant Mt via the Blackmore approach yesterday. 

4 to 6" of light density snow with some deeper, wind loaded areas on the way in.

Very little wind noted throughout the day.

One small point release on Blackmore. Appeared to be new snow, less than 1' in depth, 30 to 40' wide, and running for 200'. No other avalanches noted in the area.

NE side of Elephant Mt had a snow depth of 110cm. 10" of fresh light snow, over a denser 12" layer that was fist hardness.

Zero collapsing throughout the tour. No cracking on any aspect at any elevation.

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Elephant Mountain
Observer Name
C. Robinson

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Jan 18, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>There are two main avalanche concerns today - avalanches breaking within recently wind-drifted snow and avalanches breaking deep in the snowpack on persistent weak layers 1-2 ft off the ground.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind Slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> are most likely in the areas that have more new snow. Keep an eye out for wind drifts deeper than a couple inches. If you find a drift on a steep slope, either steer around it or assess how well it has bonded to the old snow.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>You’re most likely to trigger a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent Slab avalanche </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>in a thinner snowpack. That could be a lower elevation slope, a thin spot near rocks, or somewhere in the zones around West Yellowstone that generally have a thinner snowpack. While these slides are most likely to start in a thin area, they could propagate out into deeper places and turn into quite a big avalanche. If you want to get into steeper terrain, look for slopes with a uniformly thick snowpack (5+ ft deep) and accept that there is still some possibility you may trigger a slide. Make sure you and your partners all have rescue gear and the rest of your group is watching from a safe spot in case you get unlucky.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Human triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is MODERATE today.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Around Bozeman and Big Sky, avalanches have become unlikely on slopes unaffected by the wind. With weak layers in the snowpack, there is always some chance of triggering a deeper slide, but you should focus most of your attention on watching out for wind drifts.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>As you travel through the mountains today, you’ll find wind drifts that formed at different times over the last week and are bonded to different degrees. Strong winds a couple days were drifting snow at low elevations and in atypical locations, so stay alert even when you’re not up in the normal loading areas near ridgelines. New drifts will likely be thin, but easier to trigger, while older drifts are potentially thicker, but less likely to avalanche. Carefully assess the depth and bonding of drifts before getting into steep terrain. Cracks shooting out in front of your skis or sled are a clear sign of unstable snow and should lead to a quick retreat off steep slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind loaded slopes and LOW on non-wind loaded slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar