24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 10, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In the Lionhead area and the Southern Gallatin and Southern Madison Ranges, smaller avalanches on slopes with recent drifts of wind-loaded snow and larger avalanches breaking on buried weak layers are possible.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The primary concern is </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> breaking 2-3’ deep on weak layers formed in late January. The last avalanches failing on these weak layers occurred over a week ago and triggering one has become less likely. These slides mostly failed on treed, mid-elevation slopes, leading to several burials and close calls (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34421"><span><span><span><strong><span…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34413"><span><span><span><strong><span… Creek</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34341"><span><span><span><strong><span… Basin</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Yesterday, Alex rode through the Lionhead area and described in his </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T1mh47gpro"><span><span><span><strong>…; why the snowpack structure remains a concern.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>will be smaller, generally breaking less than a foot deep, and suspect terrain at upper elevations and below cornices is identifiable. Avoid these specific areas or watch for indicators of instability, such as shooting cracks.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Carry and train with rescue equipment and ensure only one person at a time is exposed to terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Consider the potential outcomes of an avalanche on a given slope and avoid those with higher consequence features such as trees, cliffs and gullies. The danger is rated MODERATE</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The snowpack is generally stable in the mountains around Bozeman, Big Sky, Cooke City and Island Park. Small avalanches are possible on slopes with isolated instability related to recently wind-drifted snow. Cooler temperatures and cloud cover will limit wet loose avalanches.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Yesterday, I toured Hyalite Canyon and assessed for </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slab</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>instability </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>by digging extended column tests and watching for shooting cracks. I found that wind drifts have generally stabilized (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34555"><span><span><span><span><span><…;). The primary concern resides in the isolated areas where they have not bonded. Two days ago, skiers in the Bridger Range triggered wind slabs 8-10” deep and 10-20’ wide, with one person caught and carried ten feet (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34550"><span><span><span><strong><span… and photos</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Some people are choosing to ski and ride in very steep and technical terrain. While this is a reasonable time to consider more committing objectives, the margin for error is razor-thin in these spaces, with slight miscalculations (avalanches) having significant consequences. Assess the snowpack for isolated instability in this terrain and back off if conditions don’t feel right (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2-26tmDdIc&amp;embeds_referring_euri=h…;

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>While most slopes are stable, the fundamentals of safe travel in avalanche terrain always apply–beacon, shovel, probe and one at a time on steep slopes. The avalanche danger is LOW.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

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recent small wind slabs at Lionhead

Lionhead Ridge
Lionhead Range
Code
SS-N-R1-D1-S
Elevation
9000
Aspect
E
Latitude
44.71450
Longitude
-111.31800
Notes

We rode out Lionhead Ridge and around the north end to the head of Targhee Creek. Skies started overcast, but cleared through the day as wind calmed from moderate to light out of the west and southwest.... there were two or three shallow small wind slabs below Lionhead Ridge. 

Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
1
D size
1
Bed Surface
S - Avalanche released within new snow
Problem Type
Wind Slab
Slab Thickness
6.0 inches
Vertical Fall
100ft
Slab Width
30.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Still finding poor structure, recent small wind slabs

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

We rode out Lionhead Ridge and around the north end to the head of Targhee Creek. Skies started overcast, but cleared through the day as wind calmed from moderate to light out of the west and southwest.

There were zero recent large persistent slab avalanches, and there were two or three shallow small wind slabs below Lionhead Ridge. The snow surface became moist, but crusts from previous warm days and cold night only softened slightly. There was very little, if any, wet snow avalanche hazard today.

We dug at the top of Lionhead Ridge on the south side of Airplane Bowl. 9,300', NE aspect. There was a 2.5' deep very hard slab (1f to P+) above soft facets (4F-), snow depth of 5 feet. We had ECTX, but with extra hits and some removal of the slab it propagated with a clean break. The persistent slab avalanche problem is becoming more stubborn, but not going away. For now it is not likely, but there is probably an isolated slope where you could trigger an avalanche, and we could see this problem arise again with more snow next week.

Region
Lionhead Range
Location (from list)
Lionhead Ridge
Observer Name
Alex Marienthal

Generally Stable Conditions

Date
Activity
Skiing

We skied to Flanders Mountain, traversed the ridgeline, and dropped into the northwest-facing terrain near the Winter Dance Buttress down to the Main Fork. Ridgelines had moderate to strong winds but minimal transport as snow at upper elevations had already moved or had hardened with recent wind and warm temperatures. Wind Slabs that we assessed were stubborn to unreactive, but there is probably one out there that could result in a small avalanche. No signs of dry snow instability during the tour or in our snowpack assessments (Flanders Bowl - ECTN Teens and 20s and Near Winter Dance Buttress - ECTN Teens and 20s). Snow surfaces were warming (wetting) in south-facing terrain and on all aspects below 8000' by 3 PM. However, we did not see any natural wet snow activity. 

I would be watching out for isolated wind slab instability and wet loose avalanches for now. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Flanders Creek
Observer Name
Dave Zinn

Avalanche in Storm Castle Creek Basin

Date
Activity
Skiing

Somewhat fresh looking slab avalanche in upper Storm Castle Creek on an East facing slope. Looks like there might be a wet loose slide to the right of it as well. One small wet loose avalanche, probably from yesterday, in Maid of the Mist bowl. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Storm Castle